以下中文部分和信息来源消费品行业观察。

Resource from xfpguancha.com

2019年6月6日，中国电信、中国移动、中国联通、中国广电获得第一批5G商用牌照。前三者为中国三大主流通信运营商，后者为中国最官方的广播电信传媒集团。此举意味着中国正式进入5G商用时代。

On June 6, 2019, China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Radio and Television won the first 5G commercial licenses. The first three are China's major communications operators, the latter being China's most official broadcast telecommunications media group. This move means that China officially entering the 5G era.

5G的定义：

什么是5G网络？5G网络是第五代移动通信网络，理论上，最快传输速度可达每8秒1GB，是目前4G网络的传输速度的数百倍。换句话说，一部1G的电影可在8秒之内下载完成。

随着5G技术的普及，用智能终端分享3D电影、游戏以及超高画质（UHD）节目的时代指日可待。

Definition of 5G:

What is a 5G network? The 5G network is the fifth generation mobile communication network. In theory, the fastest transmission speed can reach 1GB in every 8 seconds, which is hundreds of times the transmission speed of the current 4G network. In other words, a 1G movie can be downloaded in 8 seconds.

With the popularity of 5G technology, the era of sharing 3D movies, games, and ultra high definition (UHD) programs with smart terminals is just around the corner.

在此之前，2019年4月28日，以淘宝主播“大大大雪梨”展开的全国首场5G电商直播测试为例，超清4K画质，让我们看到了更清晰的商品展示。

Take Taobao's live-show moderator "Dadadaxueli" (KOL) as an example, she conducted the first 5G e-commerce live test on April 28, 2019, showing a clearer product display with the ultra-clear 4K image quality.

5G时代正式开启了，未来电商的发展何去何从？这是个在行业内频繁被讨论的话题，行业大佬也纷纷表达了自己对于前景的预测。在5G广泛普及来临之际，我们重新梳理一遍电商发展，从中探索未来发展的可能性？

The 5G era officially starts, and where is the future of e-commerce? This is a topic that has been frequently discussed in the industry, and the industry has also expressed its own concerns about its future. On the occasion of the widespread popularity of 5G, we have reorganized the development of e-commerce and explored the possibility of future development.

1G到5G，我们都经历了什么？what have we experienced from 1G to 5G era?

在中国的很多年轻人是没有完整经历过1G到5G的，对如今的手机购物、直播习以为常，但其实电子商务发展跨越了近半个世纪。目前，全世界还有很多国家还处于商用3G主流时代，当然也有2G和4G流行的区域。

Many young people in China have not experienced 1G to 5G era completely. They are used to shopping and broadcasting mobile phones today, but in fact, e-commerce has developed for nearly half a century. At present, there are still many countries in the world still in the mainstream of commercial 3G, of course, there are also 2G and 4G popular areas.

纵观1G到5G所代表的电商发展简史

A brief history of e-commerce development represented by 1G to 5G

1979

迈克尔·奥尔德里奇发明了网上购物。

Michael Aldrich给Videotext做了一个远程购物的概念，这就是现代电子商务的最初设想。

Michael Aldridge invented online shopping.

He gave Videotext a concept of remote shopping, which was the original idea of modern e-commerce.

1980

大哥大的出现，开启了1G通信时代。

The appearance of "Dageda"(a very firtst generation of mobile phone) opened the era of 1G communication.

1995

我国正式进入2G时代，第一款支持WAP的手机诞生。移动设备不再仅限于打电话，发短信等基础功能。

英国互联网产生第一笔交易。

杰夫·贝索斯推出Amazon.com网站。

皮埃尔·奥米迪亚创办拍卖网站eBay。

China officially entered the 2G era, and the first mobile phone supporting WAP was born. Mobile devices are no longer limited to basic features such as making calls and texting.

The UK Internet generated the first transaction.

Jeff Bezos launches the Amazon.com website.

Pierre Omidyar founded the auction site eBay.

1998

中国第一笔互联网网上交易成功.

京东成立，实体店经营。

China's first Internet online transaction was successfully done.

JD.com was established and the store was operated.

1999

中国最早的电子商务网站8848上线。

国内首家C2C电子商务平台“易趣网”上线。

腾讯模仿ICQ成立OICQ，次年因版权纠纷，改名QQ。

China's earliest e-commerce website called "8848" was launched.

China's first C2C e-commerce platform "Eachnet" was launched.

Tencent imitated ICQ to establish OICQ, and changed its name to QQ in the following years due to copyright disputes.

2000

博客进入中国，尽管没引起多大波澜，但标志着中国开始进入自媒体时代。

The entry of blogs into China, although not causing much waves, marks the beginning of China’s entry into the media era.

2002

易趣与eBay结盟，更名为eBay易趣，eBay正式进入中国市场。

eBay has formed an alliance with "Eachnet" and changed its name to eBay eachnet. eBay officially entered the Chinese market.

2003

电商发展的分水岭，加速了中国电商的进程。“非典”给电子商务带来了意外的发展机遇。

淘宝上线。

10月，阿里巴巴推出“支付宝”，进军电子支付领域。

The rosetta in the development of e-commerce has accelerated the process of e-commerce in China. SARS has brought unexpected development opportunities to e-commerce.

Taobao was launched.

In October, Alibaba launched “Alipay” and entered the field of electronic payment.

2004

亚马逊买下卓越网，打开中国市场.

京东转战做电子商务。

阿里巴巴集团与英特尔合作建设中国首个手机电子商务平台。

facebook成立。

木子美事件，博客在中国成为最火热的平台；第二年，国内各门户网站，如新浪、搜狐，纷纷加入博客阵营。中国正式开启自媒体时代。

Amazon bought the Joyo.com and opened the Chinese market.

JD moved to do e-commerce.

Alibaba Group and Intel cooperate to build China's first mobile e-commerce platform.

Facebook was founded.

In the case of Muzimei, blogs became the hottest platform in China. In the second year, domestic portals such as Sina and Sohu joined the blog camp. China officially opened its own era from the media.

2005

腾讯推出拍拍网。

YY成立，并推出视频聊天室。

Tencent launched paipai.com.

YY was established and launched a video chat room.

2006

推特成立。

Twitter was established.

2008

以VANCL、BONO、李宁为行业代表的各类服装B2C直销网购平台兴起。

唯品会成立。

VANCL, BONO, and Li Ning are the representatives of all kinds of clothing B2C direct online shopping platform.

Vipshop was established.

2009

我国进入3G时代，手机购物模式进入便捷时代。

视频网站土豆网、优酷网与淘宝合作，推出“视频电子商务”应用技术，打下了如今直播电商的基础。

“国家队”银联支付与B2C企业当当网签订合作协议，正式进入电子商务支付领域，与支付宝形成正面竞争。

新浪推出微博。

China entered the 3G era, and the mobile shopping mode entered a convenient era.

Video website Tudou, Youku and Taobao cooperated to launch the "video e-commerce" application technology, laying the foundation for today's live e-commerce.

The “National Team” UnionPay signed a cooperation agreement with B2C Dangdang, officially entered the field of e-commerce payment, and formed a positive competition with Alipay.

Sina launched Weibo.

2011

微信上线。

Tencent launched WeChat.

2012

微信推出微信公众号平台。

今日头条上线。

YY直播成立。

WeChat launched the WeChat public account platform.

Toutiao was launched.

YY live broadcast was established.

2013

中国正式进入4G商用时代。

小红书上线。

GIF快手从工具转型为短视频社区。

China officially entered the 4G commercial era.

RED("Xiaohongshu") was launched.

GIF Kuaishou has transformed from a tool to a short video community.

2015

拼多多上线。

云集上线。

花椒直播等直播平台遍地开花。

Pinduoduo was launched.

Yunji was launched.

Live broadcast platforms such as pepper live broadcast everywhere.

2016

抖音1.0.0版本上线，次年11月火爆。

Douyin (known as Tiktok in Japan) 1.0.0 version was launched and was popular in next November.

2019

中国迎来5G时代。

China entered into 5G era.

红红火火的4G时代The booming 4G era

从2013年12月到2019年6月的4G时代，中国的电商行业迎来了高速发展。得益于4G网络和自媒体的成熟，更为直观的直播、短视频成为电商平台主流展现方式。

From the 4G era from December 2013 to June 2019, China's e-commerce industry has ushered in rapid development. Thanks to the maturity of 4G networks and self-media, more intuitive live broadcasts and short videos have become the mainstream display methods for e-commerce platforms.

据QuestMobile数据显示，如今，移动互联网月活用户规模达到11.38亿。并且到2018年6月，中国用户平均每人每天使用移动互联网的时长高达289.7分钟（约5小时），同比增长23.2%。随着智能手机的迅速普及，移动电商不再作为PC电商的补充，网民形成了移动购物习惯，呈现了购物新趋势。

According to QuestMobile data, today, mobile Internet users reach 1.138 billion. By June 2018, the average daily usage of mobile Internet by Chinese users was 289.7 minutes (about 5 hours), a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. With the rapid spread of smart phones, mobile e-commerce is no longer a supplement to PC e-commerce, and netizens have formed mobile shopping habits, presenting a new trend in shopping.

据相关数据显示，2018年中国主流短视频平台均维持着较高的月活跃度，快手和抖音不相上下，分别为23000.8万人及22999.6万人，月活跃用户量最低的美拍也有1466.0万人。而淘宝直播，2018年日直播场次超过6万场。4G网络的普及和资费的降低，让直播成为了新的流量入口，并会将热度持续到5G时代初。

According to relevant data, in 2018, China's mainstream short video platform maintained a high monthly activity. Kuaishou and Douyin were comparable, with active users of 230.08 million and 229.996 million respectively. The lowest monthly active users Meipai also had 14.66 million people. Taobao live broadcast had more than 60,000 live broadcasts in 2018. The popularity of 4G networks and the reduction of tariffs have made live broadcasting a new traffic portal and will continue to heat up to the beginning of the 5G era.

在这红红火火的4G时代，人、货、物发生了转变，转向精细化的、个性化的、柔性供应链的方向发展。因羊群效应，小众群体成为趋势，“全网爆款”不再受到亲睐，取而代之的是“人群爆款”，基于由消费需求促成的流行。

In this booming 4G era, people, goods, and things have changed, turning to a refined, personalized, and flexible supply chain. Due to the herding effect, the niche group has become a trend, and the “all-network hot-selling items” are no longer favored. Instead, it is “popular hot-selling item”, based on the popularity caused by consumer demand.

那在5G时代，电商平台未来会如何？

In the 5G era, what will happen to the e-commerce platform in the future?

5G时代，电商“消失”？In the 5G era, E-commerce will "disappear" or not?

虽然我们才进入5G时代不久，并未有较大感受。5G的本质是数据传输技术的一次升级，也就是此前一直提的网速与4G时代相比快一百倍。与网络息息相关的电商，随着5G的商用，将会发生翻天覆地的变化，电商会在未来某一天“消失”。

Although we entered the 5G era lately, there was no big feeling. The essence of 5G is an upgrade of data transmission technology, that is, the network speed that has been mentioned before is one hundred times faster than that of the 4G era. E-commerce related to the network, with the commercialization of 5G, will undergo earth-shaking changes, and the e-commerce conference will “disappear” one day in the future.

为何这么说？在2017年，电商大佬们就提出了“新零售”，线上线下和物流结合在一起。同时，马云曾说：未来的十年、二十年，没有电子商务这一说，只有新零售。在5G网络的发展伴随下，线上电商渠道和线下实体店一定会慢慢融合为一体，不再区分。

Why we would say that? In 2017, e-commerce companies put forward “new retail”, combining online and offline with logistics. At the same time, Ma Yun once said: In the next ten or twenty years, there is no such thing as e-commerce, only new retail. With the development of 5G networks, online e-commerce channels and offline stores will gradually merge into one, no longer distinguish.

短视频和直播电商渐渐会被VR取代，产生“现实场景化”模式。尽管直播电商仍然会有一定的热度持续，但随着电商的“消失”，我们获取商品细节不再需要主播过多阐述，主播逐渐转成如今的导购，而我们对产品触手可及，真正实现“所见即所得”。或许在那时候，一条不错的宣传视频让我们身临其境，是不错的购物体验方式。

Short video and live e-commerce will gradually be replaced by VR, resulting in a "realistic scene" mode. Although the live e-commerce will be still popular and heat, but with the "disappearance" of e-commerce, we no longer need to elaborate on the details of the goods, the anchor is gradually turned into shopping guide, and we are at your fingertips, Realize "what you see is what you get". Perhaps at that time, a good promotional video made us immersive and a good way to shop.

但VR技术并未完全成熟，所以在5G时代，电商还会存在。而线上线下的边界会越来越模糊，即人、货、物之间的关系化繁为简，人可以直接对接仓储、货品。

But VR technology is not fully mature, so in the 5G era, e-commerce will still exist. The boundaries between online and offline will become more and more blurred, that is, the relationship between people, goods and things will be simplified, and people can directly dock storage and goods.

纵观通信技术的飞腾发展，5G时代已来，6G也已不远。在6G时代，万物皆有“生命”，万物皆可链接，会形成真正的万物互联。而5G时代，电商和实体依旧“斗争”。但在6G时代，完全从互联网转向物联网时代，不再区分线上线下渠道，两者达到完全融合，即在店or在家不存在差异。因而，电商不在5G中“死亡”，会“消失”于6G。

Looking at the development of communication technology, the 5G era has come, and 6G is not far away. In the 6G era, everything has "life", and everything can be linked, which will form a true Internet of Everything. In the 5G era, e-commerce and entities are still "struggle." However, in the era of 6G, from the Internet to the Internet of Things era, the online and offline channels are no longer distinguished, and the two are fully integrated, that is, there is no difference in the store or at home. Therefore, e-commerce is not "dead" in 5G and will "disappear" at 6G.

以上涉及个人观点，供大家了解。

Please excuse us for inappropriate wording due to English is not mother language.

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